Weekly Outlook | Risk appetite positive again – metals gear up steam

Important events this week:

Last week saw significant movements in markets. On Monday, global stock markets were under strong downward pressure. In Japan in particular, the Nikkei Index initially fell by more than 12%, but was then able to rise again. Overall, however, the index was under even greater pressure than on the black Monday of 1987.

Fresh buying followed on Tuesday and the correction seemed to be forgotten. The VIX (volatility index on the S&P 500 Index) was also able to move sharply downwards again. Is the major selling pressure now over? In the past, however, such phases have tended to be protracted, with positive impulses repeatedly leading to further selling pressure. Whether this will be the case again this week remains to be seen. In any case, the risk sentiment continued to be positive again.

– US – Producer Price Index – Producer prices in the US are expected to weaken again. In comparison, these had been slightly positive in recent months, which had generally strengthened the Dollar. A weaker result could put the Dollar under pressure again. Producer prices also indicate consumer prices with a delay, which are currently easing slightly.

The EURUSD exchange rate chart above shows that a breakout to the upside could occur, as the market had already exited the triangle. If a breakout above the psychological price level of USD 1.1000 occurs, the positive trend could continue. The data will be published on 13 August at 14:30 CET.  

– NZ – Interest Rate Decision – Another important interest rate decision is due this week. However, the Royal Bank of New Zealand is not expected to turn the interest rate screw. The “Kiwi” is also showing a slight improvement at the moment and could therefore gain further strength.

The weekly chat above shows impressively that further potential could emerge. The market was able to break away from the support zone in the USD 0.5900 area and could now rise. The interest rate decision will take place on Wednesday, 14 August at 14:30 CET.

– US – Consumer Price Index- The Consumer Price Index could also move the markets again this week. The core rate has fallen further in the last three months, although it is expected to be stronger this time. The Dollar could therefore weaken further.

The USDCHF rate in particular could show potential upside. Last week, the market was able to break away from the support zone at USD 0.8550 on the weekly chart. There could therefore now be potential in the direction of the moving average or even higher towards the USD 0.9000 area. The data will be presented on Wednesday, 14 August at 14:30 CET.