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HomeRight Arrow Market AnalysisRight Arrow Weekly AnalysisRight Arrow Weekly Outlook | US election and central bank moves guiding markets

Weekly Outlook | US election and central bank moves guiding markets

Vantage Updated Updated Tue, 2024 November 12 05:29
Weekly Outlook | US election and central bank moves guiding markets

Fundamental data:

On November 5, 2024, Trump’s presidential victory boosted the Dollar, lifting the DXY (Dollar index) from 103.70 to 105.10 the next day. In central bank actions, the BoE cut rates by 25 bps to 4.75%, and the Fed reduced its target range by 25 bps to 4.75% following a larger September cut. Gold plunged 2.5% to USD 2,680 per ounce amid a stronger Dollar and rising yields. WTI crude fell 3% to USD 70.00 per barrel as limited Chinese stimulus and speculation around Trump’s pro-oil policies weighed on prices.

Important events this week:

United States Inflation Rate MoM – on Wednesday, November 13, 2024, at 13:30 CET, the US is set to release its inflation rate, forecasted at 0.2% MoM. In September 2024, the CPI rose 0.2% MoM, matching the prior two months and surpassing estimates of 0.1%.

Last week, GBPUSD broke below its uptrend line on the daily chart at 1.2960, driven by the BoE and Fed rate cuts and Trump’s election win. If the downside breakout holds next week, the pair could target 1.2670, while a failed breakout may see a rally toward 1.3060, influenced by upcoming US CPI and UK GDP releases.

Australia Unemployment Rate – on Thursday, November 14, 2024, at 00:30 CET, Australia’s unemployment rate will be released, forecasted at 4.1%. In September 2024, the rate held steady at 4.1%, missing market expectations of 4.2%.

Last week, AUDUSD was rejected at the 4-hour downtrend line near 0.6690, sliding to around 0.6580. Even the rate cut in the US did not harm the Dollar and instead caused him to rise further. A break below the 0.6540 support could open the path toward 0.6280. However, if the breakout fails, a rebound to 0.6620 is likely. Next moves hinge on the upcoming AUD unemployment rate and US CPI release.

Commodity markets:

Silver (XAGUSD)

Wednesday saw silver prices drop to around USD 31.50 per ounce, marking a near three-week low, pressured by a stronger USD following early exit polls showing favorable results for Trump. This fueled renewed “Trump trade” optimism, driving market sentiment and weighing on safe-haven assets like Silver.

Last week, XAGUSD broke its daily chart uptrend line at USD 32.40, currently trading around USD 31.30. If the breakout holds, a move toward USD 28.30 is likely.

USOIL

Friday, crude oil and gasoline prices faced pressure as Chinese stimulus measures disappointed, potentially limiting economic growth and energy demand. Additionally, Dollar strength weighed on energy prices, while speculation over President-elect Trump’s policies boosting US crude output and tariffs slowing China added further downside pressure.

4-hour charts show, that USOIL was rejected at the downtrend line near USD 71.76, currently at USD 70.38 USD. If rejection holds, a decline to USD 64.70 USD might be likely.

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